Race Previews

KONA NEWS & NOTES...Udated...

Saturday, 11 October 2014 00:10

HAWAIIAN IRONMAN WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS - We wished we knew the names of every Minnesotan who is racing today in Kona. During the day we hope to learn who all of them are so we can post news on their progress and their finishing times.

There's a "Rule of Thumb" formula for predicting IM finishing times, that is, if all goes well and if conditions and/or course difficulty aren't extreme. It goes like this: take one's best half IM time, double it and add one hour. This formula has been around for decades and may be outdated. It certainly does not apply to pros or the Top Elite Amateurs.

As an example, East Gull Lake's Michelle Andres' half IM PR is 4:37:47, which if doubled and have an hour added to it, would suggest that she was capable of a 10:15:32. Andres has significantly beaten that time twice, going 10:05:30 in a victorious effort at Ironman Wisconsin in 2012, then popping a 9:50:23 at Kona in '13.

For giggles, let's apply the original formula, and the "Michelle Andres Formula" (1/2 IM x 2 + 40 min.*) to some of the Minnesotans who are racing today:

DAN ARLANDSON (photo above L) - Original Formula: Half IM PR - 4:06:57 x 2 = 8:13:54 + 1 hour = 9:13:54. MA Formula = 8:53:54 (Current IM PR - 9:04:07 - Vineman 2011)

SARAH BERGER - Original Formula: Half IM PR - 4:56 ** x 2 = 9:52 + 1 hour = 10:52. MA Formula - 10:32 (Current IM PR - 11:23 - Wisconsin 2013. IMOO '13 was Berger's first IM. 2014 was a breakout year for her. We're predicting a sub-11 for her today.)

KORTNEY HAAG (photo L) - Original Formula: Half IM PR - 4:34:23 x 2 = 9:08:46 + 1 hour = 10:08:46. MA Formula - 9:48:46 (Current IM PR - 10:47:14 - Wisconsin 2013. Yes, we're predicting a BIG PR for Kort.)

HILARY PATZER (photo L) - Original Formula: Half IM PR - 4:59:10 x 2 = 9:58:20 + 1 hour = 10:58:20. MA Formula - 10:38:20 (Current IM PR - 11:01:11 - Wisconsin 2013)

We need to understand that Andres is an Ironman Phenom and only a few amateur athletes in the world can live-up to the MA formula. What we hope to see today are cooperative racing conditions and satisfying experiences for all participants. Starting in the early afternoon, visit MTN often for updates on how our Minnesota peers are faring in Triathlon's  SUPER BOWL.

* We're rounding up from 35 to 40 minutes.

** Sarah's 4:49 at Superior Man was equivalent to a 4:56 due to abbreviated swim.

- KONA WEATHER - Highs are expected to be in the mid-80s, low of 76, 9 mph winds and 50% chance of afternoon showers.

- WHAT IS THE FASTEST ROOKIE IM BY AN AMERICAN WOMAN? Our cursory research suggests that Indianan Ashley CLifford's 9:07:34 at Ironman Florida in 2012 is, though it's possible that a US rookie has gone faster on foreign soil. The 2nd fastest rookie IM time? That would be the 9:09:39 at this year's Ironman Chattanooga by Minnesota's own RUTH BRENNAN MORREY.