Race Previews

A Burrito of Small Town Charm....

Tuesday, 10 July 2012 03:40

Race Preview - Historically, Heart of the Lakes Triathlon has attracted an (amateur) field that was as deep, often deeper, than those lured by the larger and more nationally renown Life Time-Minneapolis Triathlon.

That will not be the case this year. The races are on the same weekend--next weekend--and LT-Mpls will clearly have the more talented of the two fields. Minnesota's premier triathletes --Hedge, PP, Payne, CY, Boots, Ruth, all of whom are worthy of USAT AOY consideration--will be at Lake Nokomis, not Annandale. (PS - Kortney Haag, Steph Solfelt and David Holden will also be at Life Time.)

This, however, will not diminish HOLT.

What makes HOLT, well, HOLT, is atmosphere, treatment and charm, i.e. an atmosphere of caring for its participants, treating them like rock stars and wrapping the whole experience in a burrito of small-town charm.

Okay, the burrito metaphor is a bit excessive, but Minnesotans, urban and rural-dwellers alike, appreciate small-town life, its pace and its values, and all that other cool rustic Andy Giffithy / Mayberry-ish stuff.

Its legacy intact for more than a quarter century, it's safe to predict that 1200 triathletes will have a wonderful experience in Annandale next Sunday.

Though the aforementioned stars will not be in attendance, there will still be plenty of fast guys and girls on hand to battle over the podium spots. Here are MTN's predictions:

MEN:

Based on the start list that is currently posted on the event's website (last updated on June 27), we believe that rising stars Marcus Stromberg (photo R) and Kyle Serreyn, plus Kevin O'Connor, whose stardom has endured for more than two decades, will be the Top 3 guys.

In what order?

Well, let's take a look at how these dudes have performed against each other earlier this season, then look at how each guy has done here in the past.

The only 2012 event thus far in which all three of these athletes faced each other was Lake Waconia, where Marcus came out on top in the head-to-head competition. He placed 4th overall, 15-seconds in front of Kevin (5th) and 47-seconds ahead of Kyle (7th).

At HOLT '11, contested on a scorching morning with an unprecedented dew point (80+), O'Connor finished 4th, Serreyn 10th and Stromberg 17th.

Finally, we evaluated each athlete's 2012 resume to determine which guy is in the best shape right now. In four regional starts, Kevin has two podiums (3rd at Pigman Sprint and Manitou), a 4th (RochesterFest Olympic) and a 5th (Lake Waconia). Marcus has a win (COLT), a 2nd (2nd amateur / 4th overall at Buffalo Olympic) and a 4th (Lake Waconia). Serreyn has two 2nds (Oakdale and Albert Lea) a 4th (4th amateur / 6th overall at Minneman Olympic) and a 7th (Lake Waconia.)

Feeling that a tie-breaker is needed to determine whether Kevin or Marcus should be our pick to win, we looked at O'Connor's recent history at HOLT. Since 2009, he's placed 2nd once (2010) and 4th twice (2009 and 2011). History/muscle memory are on Kevin's side, not to mention the fact that his PR on the HOLT route is a smokin' 1:28:17.

PREDICTION: 1. Kevin O'Connor. 2. Marcus Stromberg. 3. Kyle Serreyn.

WOMEN:

We think that the following girls will fight over the podium spots: 9-time HOLT winner, Jan Guenther; Suzie Fox, who was 4th here in 2011 and 3rd in 2010; and Nordica Stocker, whose bid for a Most Improved nomination would be greatly enhanced with a podium effort here on Sunday. They'll be pushed hard by Ann Sudoh, Diane Hankee and four-time Minnesota Junior of the Year Beth Zirbes, who is a total hoot and now lives in Alaska and is married to a Russian guy named Boris, or maybe Vladimir. Beth has a pet wolf. (photo L)

We don't require a huge amount of analysis here. Suzie is on fire right now and we believe she is a clear favorite. Nordica beat Jan at Lake Minnetonka and isn't, like Jan, more focused right now on paddle sports and entrepreneurial stuff.

PREDICTION: 1. Suzie Fox. 2. Nordica Stocker. 3. Jan Guenther.

HOLT has always been a truly special event, deserving an elevated level of reverence and devotion. We can't wait for Sunday to get here.